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David's Macro Blog

Analysis and commentary on business, economics, real estate, financial markets, and other fun topics


Tag: macro economics

See the 13-page report below for my predictions for 2010 and more:

  • Stock Market
  • Real Estate Market: The next wave of ARM defaults? Is it time to buy yet?
  • Interest Rates: Stay low or heading higher?
  • Currency
  • Precious Metals
  • Commodities
  • Political: Will real reform be passed?
  • The Blame Game
  • Wild Cards
  • What’s the real problem and what are the potential solutions?
  • What would really shock me?

David’s 2010 Predictions

Related Post: 2009 Year in Review

First let’s remember 2008.

Wow, what a year we’ll remember for quite a while.

  • Housing crash 40% to 50% in some areas. Even parts of the Bay Area in serious decline.
  • Massive foreclosures (unprecedented historically)
  • Rising unemployment (from 4.5% to 7% in 1 year)
  • Collapse of huge companies:
    • Bear Sterns
    • Lehman Brothers
    • Merrill Lynch
    • Morgan Stanley
    • WaMu
    • Wachovia
    • AIG
    • Freddie & Fannie
  • Credit crunch (even money market funds returned zero)
  • $700 Billion TARP
  • The largest decline in:
    • Auto sales
    • Home sales
    • Home prices
    • CPI (negative…now that’s not supposed to happen)
    • Consumer sentiment
    • Home builder sentiment
    • Treasury yields (even negative briefly…huh? I pay you to return my money later)
  • $50 Billion Madoff scandal
  • Oh yeah, and the stock market fell 50% in 12 months

The only comparable time in US history? That’s right, the Great Depression.

With the 2008 year in review out of the way, is 2009 a year for some optimism?

See the 12-page report below for my predictions for Year 2009 and more:

  • Inflation or deflation?
  • Stock market
  • Real estate market
  • Interest rates
  • Currency
  • Precious metals
  • Commodities
  • Political & other events
  • Is there a silver lining?
  • Suggestions / possible solutions
  • Favorite videos

David’s 2009 Predictions

Author’s Note: I wrote this back in Jan. 2009 and shared privately with a few friends. Just got it reformatted for publishing and sharing online.