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David's Macro Blog

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See the 13-page report below for my predictions for 2010 and more:

  • Stock Market
  • Real Estate Market: The next wave of ARM defaults? Is it time to buy yet?
  • Interest Rates: Stay low or heading higher?
  • Currency
  • Precious Metals
  • Commodities
  • Political: Will real reform be passed?
  • The Blame Game
  • Wild Cards
  • What’s the real problem and what are the potential solutions?
  • What would really shock me?

David’s 2010 Predictions

Related Post: 2009 Year in Review

Biz Kids is a public TV series where kids teach kids about money and business by experimenting and solving real world business problems.

http://www.bizkids.com/show.aspx

ht – AS

Our current school system is woefully inadequate at teaching kids about the basics of money, business, entrepreneurship, and how the real economy works (hint: it isn’t an equation with greek symbols).

One thing I noticed was that most of the kids involved had these 2 characteristics:

  1. They didn’t give up when one method didn’t work.  Being kids, they just tried something else without getting stuck in failure.
  2. They learned to plan, budget, and value the money they earned and spent.

Now that we are in the Great Recession caused by excessive debt and poor financial planning, wouldn’t those skills have been good to learn?

“I like running my own business because it helps me learn what business is really like.” – Zoe Stewart (age ~8)

Now this is a class I would have loved to take in school!  In fact, I’d like to see entrepreneurship taught at all grade levels in our schools.  Why do our schools need to end at 2:15pm everyday when we are competing in a real-time global economy where a good or (virtual service) can be produced in any country?

A few of my favorite episodes below.  All of these are a MUST watch, so enjoy!

  • 103 – How Do I Get Money – Kelsey Angel Chocolates & Young Americans’ Bank
  • 105 – Money Moves – Kitsap Credit Union (buying a piglet, raising it, and selling for 4x!)
  • 106 – Bea’s Beauty Bars (hand made soap; she uses QuickBooks to track her business!!! Sounds like the next Burt’s Bees)
  • 122 – Sell, Sell, Sell – Alex sells over 1000 Girl Scout Cookies per year
  • 201 – Have a Plan, Stan! – Zephry Productions
  • 207- The World is a Risky Place – Serve it Up (tennis lesson profits)
  • 210 – Secrets to Success – Circestreem (performing pays for college!)
  • 211 – Marketing Mix – Stocked Skateboards ($250,000/year selling skateboards online!)

Do you think kids would learn supply and demand better from a textbook or their own business?

Comment below and let me know what you think about this show and any of these episodes.

First let’s remember 2008.

Wow, what a year we’ll remember for quite a while.

  • Housing crash 40% to 50% in some areas. Even parts of the Bay Area in serious decline.
  • Massive foreclosures (unprecedented historically)
  • Rising unemployment (from 4.5% to 7% in 1 year)
  • Collapse of huge companies:
    • Bear Sterns
    • Lehman Brothers
    • Merrill Lynch
    • Morgan Stanley
    • WaMu
    • Wachovia
    • AIG
    • Freddie & Fannie
  • Credit crunch (even money market funds returned zero)
  • $700 Billion TARP
  • The largest decline in:
    • Auto sales
    • Home sales
    • Home prices
    • CPI (negative…now that’s not supposed to happen)
    • Consumer sentiment
    • Home builder sentiment
    • Treasury yields (even negative briefly…huh? I pay you to return my money later)
  • $50 Billion Madoff scandal
  • Oh yeah, and the stock market fell 50% in 12 months

The only comparable time in US history? That’s right, the Great Depression.

With the 2008 year in review out of the way, is 2009 a year for some optimism?

See the 12-page report below for my predictions for Year 2009 and more:

  • Inflation or deflation?
  • Stock market
  • Real estate market
  • Interest rates
  • Currency
  • Precious metals
  • Commodities
  • Political & other events
  • Is there a silver lining?
  • Suggestions / possible solutions
  • Favorite videos

David’s 2009 Predictions

Author’s Note: I wrote this back in Jan. 2009 and shared privately with a few friends. Just got it reformatted for publishing and sharing online.