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David's Macro Blog

Analysis and commentary on business, economics, real estate, financial markets, and other fun topics

Archive

Archive for January, 2009

Global Financial Crisis

Peter Schiff’s “Crash Proof”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6NvjrfC6i0I

(This was recorded before the main crash to give you perspective)

The Inevitable Collapse of the Dollar

Interviews credit agency insiders (who had quit the firm) about how the credit agencies were part of the problem
http://www.pbs.org/now/shows/446/

San Diego Real Estate

Carlsbad beach drive in January!!! (time to move)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nfPuA3QUiE

JtR in Carlsbad on Aviara (hear what he says just inside the front door; also about the kid’s room)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZU2fjkt2kk

Misc.

TSO Christmas Canon Rock (my favorite version on YouTube)

Video Captures US Airways Landing on Hudson
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSv16PFKCJE

First let’s remember 2008.

Wow, what a year we’ll remember for quite a while.

  • Housing crash 40% to 50% in some areas. Even parts of the Bay Area in serious decline.
  • Massive foreclosures (unprecedented historically)
  • Rising unemployment (from 4.5% to 7% in 1 year)
  • Collapse of huge companies:
    • Bear Sterns
    • Lehman Brothers
    • Merrill Lynch
    • Morgan Stanley
    • WaMu
    • Wachovia
    • AIG
    • Freddie & Fannie
  • Credit crunch (even money market funds returned zero)
  • $700 Billion TARP
  • The largest decline in:
    • Auto sales
    • Home sales
    • Home prices
    • CPI (negative…now that’s not supposed to happen)
    • Consumer sentiment
    • Home builder sentiment
    • Treasury yields (even negative briefly…huh? I pay you to return my money later)
  • $50 Billion Madoff scandal
  • Oh yeah, and the stock market fell 50% in 12 months

The only comparable time in US history? That’s right, the Great Depression.

With the 2008 year in review out of the way, is 2009 a year for some optimism?

See the 12-page report below for my predictions for Year 2009 and more:

  • Inflation or deflation?
  • Stock market
  • Real estate market
  • Interest rates
  • Currency
  • Precious metals
  • Commodities
  • Political & other events
  • Is there a silver lining?
  • Suggestions / possible solutions
  • Favorite videos

David’s 2009 Predictions

Author’s Note: I wrote this back in Jan. 2009 and shared privately with a few friends. Just got it reformatted for publishing and sharing online.

Business/Financial/Economic Topics:

Real Estate Markets and Investing/Management:

Favorite WCS Dance Videos: